
12 months is a long time in politics. Yet despite entering the White House on the back of a campaign based around energy last November, America's new President has yet to solidify his thoughts on oil and gas and clearly communicate his intentions.
Riding into Washington in the wake of $4-a-gallon gas, the Obama campaign focused on the area of greatest concern to voters: their pocketbooks. With sky-high oil prices fresh in the mind, his vision was one of a greener and more efficient America; one that would create jobs and cut US reliance on rogue, oil-producing states in the Middle East and elsewhere. And the implication was that he would get there with or without the cooperation of the international oil majors.
As a statement of intent, it certainly set industry pulses racing. Today, however, his policy direction is less clear-cut. For instance, we still don't know exactly what his thoughts on offshore oil drilling are, and in trying to appease both environmentalists and energy conservatives he is merely muddying the waters. On the one hand he has declared his intentions to limit offshore drilling and further development of America's natural resources; but on the other he has vowed to bring down prices and reduce US dependence on foreign oil. It is the mixed signals that are causing confusion and generating ill-feeling within government and the industry at large.
Now is the time for clear leadership on this issue. America is the world's third-biggest oil producer and largest petroleum consumer. But global oil discoveries have declined steadily since the early 1960s, despite periods of high prices and advances in exploration and production technology. The deficit has grown such that around the world we are now consuming roughly three times the amount of oil we are discovering each year. Many, including the OECD's International Energy Agency (IEA), forecast another supply crunch between late 2010 and 2012, depending on how quickly global demand recovers.
In fact, the discovery deficit is now so large that the IEA estimates an equivalent of six additional Saudi Arabias need to be found and developed, requiring cumulative investments of $26 trillion, in order to meet expected 2030 global oil demand. Meanwhile the US has abundant resources on its doorstep, but is currently failing to utilize them. This is the dilemma the administration's policy-makers are facing.
Mixed signals on offshore oil drilling will only serve to create contempt and disillusionment among fellow government officials and voters alike. The US must remain competitive in the energy production sector, especially against emerging powers like China. And greater transparency would go along way to help opening up the debate about which direction the US needs to take to help meet its future energy requirements.