Did IEA distort peak oil data?

Peak Oil Data

The world is far closer to running out of oil than International Energy Agency estimates suggest.

The UK's Guardian newspaper reported yesterday that a whistleblower from within the IEA claims the organization came under extreme pressure from the US to "distort" figures that pointed towards a looming shortage, for fear of triggering panic buying.

The IEA, which advises 28 industrialized nations on energy policy, is scheduled to release its World Energy Outlook today.

"Many inside the organization believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90 million to 95 million barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further," the Guardian quoted the IEA source as saying.

The reality is far more alarming

The Outlook is used by many countries around the world to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies, including Britain and the US.

The concerns surround the IEA's prediction in the 2008 Outlook, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83 million barrels a day to 105 million barrels. Critics claim the reality is far more alarming, arguing the figures cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

The "peak oil" debate has been raging for some time, and the theory that we are close to tipping point with the globe's reserves is gaining more and more momentum among the global energy establishment.

"The 120 million figure always was nonsense"

"The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120 million barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116 million and then 105 million last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry.

"The 120 million figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this."

As of yet, no senior officials at the IEA have come forward to comment on the issue, but in the past the organization repeatedly warned that a lack of investment would lead to serious strain on supply. However, it has also continuously argued there is enough oil in the ground and that we would not hit the peak for another two decades.

Some critics are even raising the issue that a peak in demand could occur as oil supply will reach a high point because of policies to curb fuel use as part of efforts to combat global warming.

It will be sometime before there is any conclusive resolution to the issue, and it will interesting to hear the IEA's response to the Guardian's report. And although everyone knows the world's oil reserves won't last forever, it would be pretty useful to know just how much we have left.

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