Oil spill latest - Worst case scenarios are likely

Oil and gas has been gushing from a stricken riser pipe into the Gulf of Mexico for 43 days, and despite early indications that the spill would be stemmed without too much incident, it seems that deep drilling and ill preparation may require drastic measures and in doing so, has caused several depressing worst-case scenarios.

Now British oil company BP have said that the time-scale for stopping the stricken oil well is likely going to be at least August, which will prove a crushing blow to everyone who anticipated a quick resolution.

The news will be particularly damaging to the President Obama and the US government who have threatened to intervene if BP faltered in both stemming the leak and cleaning up the mess, which is now the size of Washington state and threatening the fragile coastal wetlands.

Said President Obama: "The potential devastation to the Gulf Coast, its economy and its people require us to continue our relentless efforts to stop the leak."

Despite toiling at the leak site, first with a 100-ton dome and then the 'Top Kill' method, BP have conceded that they won't be able to fully stop the leak until a relief well is completed, which will take a further two months to finish. In the meantime, they will continue to hoover up as much oil as possible through a RITT, which then transports the collecting oil up to a containment vessel at the surface.

However July could only be a pipe-dream. "The worst-case scenario is Christmas time," Dan Pickering, the head of research at energy investor Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. in Houston, said. "This process is teaching us to be skeptical of deadlines."

If oil does continue to gush into the Gulf at the current estimate of around 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day until the end of the year, then the amount of oil contained within the Gulf of Mexico would be about four million barrels, and would be responsible for wiping out marine life deep at sea near the leak and elsewhere in the Gulf, and along hundreds of miles of coastline, according to Harry Roberts, a professor of Coastal Studies at Louisiana State University.

Could the oil spill by halted with a nuke?

Yesterday news spread that several Peaceful Nuclear Explosions (PNE) were detonated within the former Soviet Union to halt gas leaks from deep gas wells. The issue was raised with Matthew Simmons on Bloomberg, suggesting that despite being an off-shore well there may be a chance that triggering an explosion the earth would compact sufficiently enough to stop the flow completely. "Probably the only thing we can do is create a weapon system and send it down 18,000 feet and detonate it, hopefully encasing the oil," he said.

However leading government and officials, including nuclear experts have turned their noses at the suggestion, claiming that any nuclear explosion could have possibly disastrous consequences, both radiologically and geopolitically, as it would violate a signed arms treaty.

Dr. Gregory Ryskin, Professor of Chemical Engineering at Northwestern University, has also claimed that any large explosion could release large amounts of methane - a substance that is flowing freely from the stricken well along with the oil - and cause a methane explosion of apocalyptic proportions.

Related articles:

Oil spill latest: The cost of clumsiness | Gulf oil spill latest: Containing the spill | Oil spill latest: BP still the company to clean up mess | US oil rig sinks and causes oil spill off US coast | Oil spill latest: A time to 'Top Kill' | Oil spill latest: A nuke to stop the Gulf oil spill | Oil spill latest: oil leaking at catastrophic levels | Oil spill latest: BP make strides to contain the spill

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